2012年3月26日月曜日

IGPI流 経営分析のリアル・ノウハウ

IGPI流 経営分析のリアル・ノウハウ
富山和彦 & IGPI  
PHPビジネス文庫


  1. 経営分析の心得 F/S 3表から小説を描く。インパクトの大きい部分をシンプルに、付加価値に注目する。平均や数値にこだわらず、実際の行動をイメージする。
  2. 勝ちパターン
    • コスト面(共有コスト、固有コスト)
      • 規模の経済(規模型事業) 鉄鋼、素材
      • 範囲の経済 カネボウ化粧品
      • 密度の経済 生コン、電炉、立地、セブンイレブン
        • 家電量販店 - ロードサイドと都市での違い。業態特性と経済メカニズム
      • (経験曲線)
    • バリュー面
      • ネットワーク外部性 携帯
      • スイッチングコスト 携帯
      • (標準化戦略)
    • Industrial Value Chain
      • 水平分業 or 垂直統合、川上 or 川下、産業全体
          • (エレクトロニクス成功 1.擦り合わせインテグラル 2.世界中の顧客 3. ニッチな市場で支配的なシェア)
      • 機会事業、障壁事業
    • (3C, 5 Force, SWOT, PEST - Analysis from the aspect of Economic Mechanism)
  3. 経営分析
    • Activity Based P/L, B/Sフェルミ推定で数字先行にしない。
    • 相場観を養う
    • 管理会計の視点 商品ごとのコスト、会社ごとのスパン

2012年3月21日水曜日

Sky Diving

Nervous
=> think / commitment => courageous

Just like a dive to the water
=> fly in the sky because wind is so strong
=> mexico
much more interesting when I ponder it objectively.
POV - Dead/ Alive boundary - daydreaming
make it easy to commit suicide by jumping off from the top of the building

Parachute is more thrilling
- especially when harness is unfastened.
- and when you control it

On board
The instructor said
"yours are Chinese, mine are Japanese ちょっと危ないね""Ebizori!"


  • If you have a specific commitment, you do not need to worry about anything.

2012年3月13日火曜日

Lean Startup



Lean Startup
"Create Value at minimal cost"


Define

  •   Start up - Organization, new product or service, under extremely uncertainty
  •   Lean Management screens waste and value / part with "just-do-it" style or "the right place at the right time"
  •   Validated Learning - Value hypothesis / Growth Hypothesis
  •      Experiment of behavior to check hypotheses => vision


Learn

  •    <speed up the feedback loop> -(idea) - Build - (product) - Measure - (data) - Learn -
  •    Learn  Elevator pitch - (X needs O because A)antecede and analogy with the fact - based on assumption relevant to "leap-of-faith" questions
  •    Analog vs Antilog (Sony Walkman vs Napster / iPod)
  •    Genchi, Genbutsu - Deming
  •    Minimum Viable Product (MVP) - Test what is value for customers
    • Video MVP, Concierge MVP, Wizard of Oz (human) testing MVP
  • Innovation Accounting
    • Vanity Metrics (based on only growth hypothesis or superficial page views, just do Agile Development) 
    • vs. Actionable Metric (3A) implement Kanban(until learn is done, do not develop) and split testing
      • Actionable (correlation, cause and effect)
      • Accessible (simple, cohort-based reports, widespread access to the reports / embed a system in a product)
      • Audible (Difficulty of responsibility <= meet a customer / primary date
Accelerate
  •   Adaptive Organization ……5 Whys / allocate Black Belts to each teams
  •   Innovative Organization
    • Scarce but Secure Resources
    • Independent Development Authority
    • A personal Stake in the Outcome / 主査
         

2012年3月5日月曜日

Note: Walmart

Annual report 2011

Mission "Save money. Live better"
"We save people money so they can live better"
Sales $421, 849 mil (COGS 315,287/ 74.74%)
operating income $ 25,542 mil
Net income $16,389

<--! Inventories 36,318 (DSI: 42days) --!>
Receivables,net 5,089 (DSO: 4.40days)

Cash Flow Analysis
  • Accruals/ TA = {16389 - (23643 - 12699 +489)} / 180663 = 2.74%
  • Operating Accruals to Current Assets {(23538 + 7461) - (23643+6984+ 2163)} / 51893 = -3.10%
  • CAPEX to depreciation     (12699 - 489)/ 7641 = 1.60

EPS ratios

  • EGR 8.20 %
  • PEf 11.16
  • PEG 1.33
Increase in Inventories (3086)??

Inventory/receivable system
(corporate site)
http://walmartstores.com/AboutUs/7794.aspx
(Supply chain management)
RFID(radio frequency identification), Vendor-managed inventory
http://money.howstuffworks.com/how-inventory-management-systems-work.htm


Increase in DTL 804
(P&E 833)
Tax paid in the U.S.  $17705 => 18398. Thus, its income is proven by tax pa

2012年3月3日土曜日

Screenwriting


<Make a list, and analyze!>


High-concept <premise-description + hook>

3 Act  8 Sequences (each 15min)

1. Act 1 (30min/100p) 2 sequences

  • opening image
  • meet the hero/ine
  • Here/ine's (inner and) outer desire
  • Hero/ine's arc
  • Inciting incident/Call to Adventure
  • Meet the antagonist(and/or introduce a mystery, which is what you do when you're going to keep your antagonist hidden to reveal at the end) (villain often has the same purpose  but via a different way)State the theme/what's the story about
  • Allies
  • Mentor (possibly. May not have one or may be revealed later in the story)
  • Love interest
  • Plant/Reveal
  • Hope/Fear
  • Time clock (possibly. May not have one or may be revealed later in the story)
  • Sequence One climax
  • Central Question
  • Act One climax

Climax

2-A. Act 2 (total:60min /200p) 4 sequences
Part ONE (30 min /100P)

  • Crossing the Threshold/ Into the Special World (may occur in Act One/ Matrix<a red pill>)
  • Threshold Guardian/ Guardian at the Gate (possibly)
  • Here/ine's Plan
  • Antagonist's plan
  • Training Sequence
  • Series of Tests
  • Picking up new Allies
  • Assembling the Team
  • Attacks by the Antagonist (whether or not the Hero/ine recognizes these as coming from the antagonist)
  • In a detective story, Questioning Witnesses, Lining Up and Eliminating Suspects, Following Clues

The Midpoint

  • Completely changes the game
  • Locks the hero/ine into a situation or action
  • Can be a huge revelation
  • Can be a huge defeat
  • Can be a "now it's personal" loss
  • Can be sex at 60 - the lovers finally get together, only to open up a whole new world of problems

Part TWO(30min/ 100P)

  • Recalibrating - after the shock or defeat of the game-changer in the midpoint, the hero/ine must Revamp The Plan and try a New Mode of Attack
  • Escalating Actions/ Obsessive Drive
  • Hard Choices and Crossing The Line(immoral actions by the main character to get what s/he wants)
  • Loss of Key Allies (possibly because of the hero/ine's obsessive actions, possibly through death or injury by the antagonist)
  • A Ticking Clock (can happen anywhere in the story)
  • Reversals and Revelations/Twists
  • The Long Dark Night of the Soul and/or Visit to Death (also known as: All Is Lost)

The Second Act Climax

  • Often can be a final revelation before the end game: the knowledge of who the opponent really is 
  • Answers the Central Question


Act 3 (20min/ 60p) 2 sequences
       The third act is basically the Final Battle and Resolution. It can often be one continuous sequence - the chase and confrontation, or confrontation and chase. There may be a final preparation for battle, or it might be done on the fly. Either here or in the last part of the second act the hero will make a new, FINAL PLAN, based on the new information and revelations of the second act
       The essence of a third act is the final showdown between protagonist and antagonist. It is often divided into two sequences:
       1: Getting there (Storming the Castle)
       2: The final battle itself

  • Thematic Location - often a visual and literal representation of the Hero/ine's Greatest Nightmare
  • The protagonist's character change
  • The antagonist's character change
  • Possibly ally/allies' character changes and/or gaining of desire
  • Possibly a huge final reversal or reveal(twist), or even a whole series of payoffs that you've been saving
  • RESOLUTION: A glimpse in the New Way of Life that the hero/ine will be living after this whole ordeal and all s/he's learned from it.
  • Closing Image

Hero/ine 's change of Motive (to inner ones)
Antagonist's change (turns out to be an ally of hero/ine)
Make it Universal motive


<Tech>

  1. Visionally Story telling (Study from movies < an Establishing shot & a Master shot >Setpiece scenes)
  2. Creating suspense (insects-esque scene, naked, water, when you are not prepared for attacking, "who is doing this?" question-hanging approach)
  3. Plants and Payoffs (a picture in Back To the Future , a rose in Beauty and Beast/ often inserted later)
  4. Big twist (big secret, misleading narrator, antagonist turns out to be an ally)
  5. Character Introductions (irresistible character introduction)
  6. Fairy Tale Structure  (kind to readers/ three fairy tale theory. Three-task structure, Three-sibling structure, Three-magical ally structure)
  7. Meta Structure (energia / "story designing principle"// "sometimes there is just a perfect way to tell a story"). 
  8. Top things I know about Editing (Cut,cut,cut; Read your book aloud. All of it. Cover to cover; Find a great critique group; Do several passes; Whatever your genre is, do a dedicated pass focusing on that crucial genre element; Know your Three-Act structure; Do a dedicated desire line pass; Do a dedicated Emotional pass; Do a dedicated sensory pass; Go back through your story grid and check for all the story elements we've discussed in this book )

2012年3月1日木曜日

Note: Johnson & Johnson

(2012)$million
sales 65,030 (international 36,1  / U.S. 28,9 )
Remicade a lucrative rheumatoid arthritis  5,492


(2010)
Conglomerate
Medical devices and diagnostics 25
8,272 (33%)
Pharmaceutical segment  23
7,086 (31%)
Consumer segment 15
2, 342 (16%)

selling, marketing and administrative expenses on sale
19,424 / 61,587 = 32%

Net Income $ 13,334 million

"The source of our enduring strength is a fundamental commitment to
Our Credo
and an operating model that has served us well for decades."

Broadly based in human health
Managed for the long term
Decentralized approach
People and Value